[SMM Analysis]SMM Lithium Hydroxide Price Review This Week（8.21-8.28）

[SMM Analysis:China's copper concentrate imports are expected to increase by 7.8% year-on-year in 2025. How will spot TC for copper concentrate play out in the fourth quarter?] As September comes to a close, the copper industry is about to welcome the LME London Metal Week and the annual long-term contract negotiations of Chinese smelters. Predictions for China's copper concentrate import volume in the fourth quarter, the trend of spot TC, and the outcomes of long-term contract negotiations have become focal points of market attention. SMM provides possible scenarios for market reference.

ExxonMobil's competitive edge lies in its use of synthetic graphite. This lab-engineered carbon material is produced from petroleum byproducts or other feedstocks rather than being mined. Compared with natural graphite, synthetic graphite offers higher purity and consistency. Its production is less labor-intensive, scalable through ExxonMobil’s refineries, and more environmentally friendly due to lower land use and emissions. This material outperforms mined alternatives in conductivity and stability, directly enhancing battery efficiency and reliability. Following its acquisition of Superior Graphite’s assets in September 2025, ExxonMobil aims to expand domestic production capacity in the U.S., reduce reliance on imports, and support local EV manufacturing.

According to the project restart strategy, the Finniss lithium project holds 10.7 million tonnes of ore reserves (averaging 1.29% Li₂O) and 48.5 million tonnes of mineral resources (averaging 1.26% grade). A restart study released in May 2025 indicates that the project can achieve an annual production capacity of 205,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate (SC6), with FOB operating costs estimated at A$690-785 per tonne. The operation will adopt a purely underground mining method across three orebodies—BP33, Grants, and Carlton—with BP33’s mining cost projected at just A$63-72 per tonne.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in July 2025, fruit shell charcoal imports amounted to 11,092.3 mt, down 3% MoM and 31% YoY. The average import price of fruit shell charcoal in June was $653.97/mt. In May, the average import price was $652.95/mt, with the average import price remaining flat MoM but still at a historically high level.

According to Xinhua News Agency, this innovation delivers a two- to threefold improvement in energy density and endurance compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries. The report notes that this breakthrough comes at a time when demand for high-capacity, long-lasting batteries is surging across sectors such as electric vehicles, consumer electronics, robotics, and the low-altitude economy. Although energy density is crucial, enhancing it has remained technically challenging.

[SMM Analysis:Copper Consumption in New Energy Vehicles H1 2025] On July 16, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing:January-June 2025 NEV production reached 6.968 million units, representing a 41.4% year-on-year increase.According to SMM estimates, full-year 2025 NEV production is forecast at 16.29 million units, with second-half production expected to reach 9.32 million units.

The chosen refinery site on Mission Island, previously home to a decommissioned power station, will have an annual output of 20,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide (LCE)—sufficient to power half a million EVs yearly.

July lithium hydroxide output edged up sequentially, remaining broadly flat; August is expected to see a mild pullback.

[SMM Analysis] Before the deadline of US S232 settlement, Offshore market remains silent.

The immediate catalyst for the futures rally stems from supply concerns over mining license compliance issues in Jiangxi. Market sources indicate eight lithium mines in Jiangxi face rectification orders for environmental and licensing violations, with one major mine's license set to expire in early August under uncertain renewal prospects. Should renewal fail, this could force a temporary suspension, potentially cutting monthly supply by 10,000 LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent).